Interest rate decision is expected at 19:00 GMT and Powell speach at 19:30 today. By far this is the most important event that investors have been waiting for in recent weeks. Even positive cpi was not fully taken into account by the market due to the fact that investors want to wait for the decision on the rate and Powell’s speech. All investors’ attention will be riveted on Powell’s speech, and good CPI figures give reason to expect something positive for risky assets.
Technically I see it like this:
I think that there is a high probability of breaking this channel up today, and if this happens, the daily chart will look like this:
That is, the channel can be broken up and the target for bitcoin will look at 21000.
Events that interfere with a positive scenario.
The main negative event that hinders the crypto market is the negative that develops with binance and the consequences that this may cause. At the moment, more than $3 billion has already been withdrawn from binance, and investors are afraid of another scandal in the crypto market that could again extinguish the overall favorable wave for risky assets.
Let me remind you that the crypto market has already once missed the beginning of the rally of risky assets due to the collapse of the ftx exchange. At the moment, I don’t think that this event can end as sadly as with ftx, but the market has concerns about this and this certainly negatively affects the crypto market.
For clarity, on the chart above, you can look at the growth dynamics of s&p (orange line) and the fall of bitcoin due to the collapse of ftx. The s&p is up 5% and bitcoin is down 25% since the ftx crash and has now recovered only 10%.
I conclude that there is still the potential to catch up with s&p even without any positive from the US Federal Reserve, etc., but it is important that the fundamentals of the crypto market itself also contribute to this.
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