Before reviewing the upcoming week, I propose to look at the past week in this way. Based on the fact that the last few weekends have been marked by corrective movements (falling after growth and rising after falling), in general, we can say that the past week was bullish, even despite the fall over the weekend.
As you can see, the market has moderately recovered over the past week and there has not even been a hint of an attempt to test the support level. I expected that we would see it on Friday after the publication of NFP data, but despite the bearish report for the crypto market, the market reacted with a decline only on the weekend in the form of a standard correction after a long growth.
When I separate last week’s move into bullish weekdays and down weekends, nothing else comes to my mind but to treat it as a normal correction after an extended rally.
Crypto market forecast for the coming week 11.07-17.07.2022
Now, if we consider the current decline as a correction, then the level of 20200-20500 is our support.?
Whenever we are at such levels of support or resistance, I look at the fundamental background and upcoming events. From the current news, I don’t see a reason to pass this level at the moment. Of the upcoming events for next week, we have these events:
- July 13, Wednesday – GDP in Great Britain. – It can only affect if it causes a very strong strengthening of the dollar, which is unlikely but possible, given the poor situation in the economy of Britain and Europe.
- July 13, Wednesday – US CPI Core data. – This is an important indicator and affects the interest rate, after the rumors appeared last week about the improvement of the situation with inflation, there is a chance that this indicator could serve as an impetus for growth if the data comes out according to the rumors.
- July 14, Thursday – US PPI. – Just like CPI is related to inflation and can affect the market.
- July 15, Friday – GDP and Industrial production in China. – is also an important indicator, as the crypto market went down strongly due to the introduction of lockdowns in China and investors are looking forward for improving the economic situation in China.
As you can see, the next important events for the upcoming week start on Wednesday. Accordingly, whenever we are near such important levels and there are no important events nearby that could affect the breakdown of this level, I consider it as a technical decline and do not expect this level to pass until Wednesday.
Therefore, a rebound from this level and a moderate recovery to Wednesday is more likely at the moment. Since I cannot draw 100 scenarios for the development of events here, I will draw an optimistic scenario for the market movement within a week and will update it in the telegram channel?
If the inflation data comes out optimistic according to the rumors, and bear stop losses at 23500 are triggered, the market can very quickly go to 25000.
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