Overview of the crypto market and forecast for 20.06.2022-26.06.2022
Overview of the crypto market last week 13.06.2022-19.06.2022
Last week, the crypto market priced in a 75 pip rate hike by the US Fed and, most importantly, partly priced in a 75 rate hike in July as Powell gave a clear signal that a 75 rate hike is realistic and dependent on situation with inflation. Therefore, investors will carefully monitor all the data that relates to inflation, and in case of a negative, there will be a moderate decline (since the most negative scenario is already included in the price) and a very strong recovery if some positive appears, simply for the reason that no one expects and no one believes in it. The situation in the economy is deteriorating and so far there is not even a hint of improvement. Also, the crypto market was declining on its own fundamentals such as the situation with Celsius and a small decoupling from the dollar of such stablecoins as USDd and USDt.
Overview of the upcoming week 20.06.2022-26.06.2022 of the crypto market and forecast
In the coming week, we are waiting for the release of the following important economic data:
Wednesday, 22 June, 14:30 GMT – FED Chair Powell Testifies. Only if he says something new, but most likely he will not say anything new and will not affect the market in any way.
Thursday, 23 June, 8:30 GMT – Lots of important UK statistics – Services PMI, Manufacturing PMI, Composite PMI. This data affects the crypto market only if the dollar index strengthens or weakens.
Thursday, 23 June, 12:00 GMT – FED Chair Powell Testifies. – Same
As you can see, there are no important data and very little chance that they will have an impact on the market, which means that the crypto market will be free floating in the coming week. And now the forecast.
Crypto market forecast on 20.06.2022-26.06.2022
If we consider the situation on the market in technical terms, then I see 2 supports that are relatively close to the current price, and I think that there are great chances that the market can resist and start growing after touching them. The first support level is at $17,500, which the bears failed to pass a few hours ago. This level was formed on December 20, 2020 and served as a place for a rebound, followed by the growth of bitcoin to its new ATH. The second strong level is at the level of $16400, it is currently stronger and in order to pass it, something fundamentally negative needs to happen.
Since we don’t have important economic data this week and quite a lot of negative is already included in the price, I think it makes sense for the bears to go down again to eliminate premature long positions and begin recovery to the 19000-20000 area next week. Also, the normalization of the situation with stablecoins should contribute to this, but first, the bears can hit the stop losses one more time.
But fundamentally, we are ready to start growing directly from this level. All the negative is already priced and according to the classical rules of fundamental analysis, the market should recover by at least 30% after a protracted fall.
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