The upcoming week is very important, we can say that it will determine the market movement in the near future. The main event is the decision of the FOMC on the rate hike on Wednesday at 18:00GMT, and also, no less important event is Powell’s speech immediately after the decision on the rate, since if there are no surprises and the Fed raises the rate by 75 basis points, then the market will practically not react on this, since such an indicator has already been included in the price and the attention of all market participants will be riveted on Powell’s speech in order to understand what the market should expects in October.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is descending towards the 18800 level. The bears is trying to break through the 18500 and 18000 levels, but they don’t have enough fundamentals to do it. It often happens that reputable organizations make some kind of forecasts before such big events and the market passes these levels earlier, but it’s manipulations. We could break below the resistance level earlier, but if Powell does not confirm these concerns on Wednesday, it will turn out to be a false break.
My expectations
You asked me many times about the Ethereum merge, what are my moods in the near future etc. I answered you that I am bearish in mid term. How could it be otherwise if a purchase took place on a hype for several months, of course, that after the event itself, everyone began to take profits and the ETH went down. Approximately the same situation is here. Everyone understands that this is a clearly negative event for the market, the negative is laid in advance, short positions are opened, everyone wants to refrain from buying until Wednesday, etc., but after the event, if the worst expectations do not happen, then we should see a recovery in Bitcoin above 20,000 and few pumps on some alts (Because even some pumps were postponed due to fears associated with the Fed). I read many good fundamental news on many altcoins, but there were no purchases. Absolutely everyone decided to refrain from trades until Wednesday.
But if Powell gives signals that they are preparing to raise the rate to 100 basis points in October and gives some hawkish signals, then of course we should expect a test of the low of June 17700.
But for some reason I don’t think that it will happen. To have grounds for such fears, we should have seen some very different inflation data in the previous days. And as far as you remember, almost all the data came out in line with expectations. And if inflation is within expectations, then, accordingly, all decisions on rates should be within expectations. And the “within expectations” scenario should have a positive impact on the crypto market, speculation will go away for a while and recovery can be expected.
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